DETERMINAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA TAHUN 2000 –2024
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Abstract
The trade balance is one of the key indicators reflecting a
country’s economic condition through export and import
activities. As one of the world’s leading producers of crude palm
oil (CPO), Indonesia relies heavily on CPO exports as a source
of foreign exchange. Changes in CPO export volume,
international CPO prices, the inflation rate, and the U.S. dollar
exchange rate are believed to influence the performance of
Indonesia’s trade balance. This study aims to analyze the impact
of these four variables on Indonesia’s trade balance in both the
short and long term. The study employs a quantitative approach
using annual secondary data from 2000 to 2024. The trade
balance is used as the dependent variable, while CPO export
volume, international CPO prices, inflation, and the U.S. dollar
exchange rate serve as independent variables. The analysis was
conducted using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
to identify short-term and long-term relationships among the
variables. The results show that in the short term, none of the
variables had a significant effect on Indonesia’s trade balance.
Conversely, in the long term, CPO export volume, international
CPO prices, inflation, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate had
significant effects. CPO exports and prices increase foreign
exchange earnings, while inflation reduces export competitiveness. The U.S. dollar exchange rate also affects international trade competitiveness. These findings indicate
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